Is Bitcoin Really on the Path to $13 Million? Let’s Break It Down
Introduction
Michael Saylor, the outspoken CEO of MicroStrategy, has once again made waves in the crypto space. This time, he’s predicting that Bitcoin could reach a staggering $13 million per coin by 2045. Bold? Absolutely. But is it realistic? That’s what we’re here to explore.
Before you dismiss this as just another wild Bitcoin prediction, let’s break it down using data, adoption models, and historical trends. After all, understanding Bitcoin’s potential can make all the difference in long-term investment decisions.
Saylor’s $13 Million Claim: Breaking It Down
MicroStrategy is one of the biggest corporate holders of Bitcoin, second only to BlackRock—one of the largest asset managers worldwide. Given this level of confidence, it’s worth taking a closer look at Saylor’s bold claim.
His projection is based on Bitcoin growing at an average annual rate of 29% for the next 21 years. If that growth holds, his forecast would mean massive price appreciation, reaching the astronomical $13 million figure.
He even put it in plain terms during a recent talk:
“Every Bitcoin you don’t buy is gonna cost you $13 million, my friend.”
That’s quite the statement, but let’s take a more analytical approach and compare it to the Rate of Adoption model I’ve developed over the years.
The Rate of Adoption Model vs. Saylor’s Prediction
For those unfamiliar, the Rate of Adoption model links Bitcoin’s price trajectory to the growth of “non-zero” wallets—basically, the number of people actually holding Bitcoin.
Back in 2020, I introduced this model at the Quant Workshop Conference, and it accurately predicted Bitcoin’s 2021 peak at around $63,000—just shy of its real peak of $67,000 in October of that year.
More recently, I updated the model and shared the results on Cointelegraph, where it suggested a price target of $130,000 for the current cycle—a level we may see soon.
But the big question remains: What happens next?
Bitcoin’s Future Price: Adjusting the Model for ETF Adoption
With the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S., institutional adoption is now accelerating. This is a game-changer, as it significantly boosts accessibility and demand.
Since I initially planned to recalibrate the adoption model in late 2024, I decided to take this new variable into account. And the results?
- By 2045, Bitcoin’s median projected price is $8.3 million per coin.
- On the upper-end scenario, Bitcoin’s price could exceed a jaw-dropping $21.6 million per coin.
While these numbers are lower than Saylor’s $13 million estimate, they still paint an extremely bullish long-term picture for Bitcoin’s future.
Historical Bitcoin price trend and projected growth curve
So, What’s Next for Bitcoin in 2025?
Now, let’s bring things back to the short-term.
Using the enhanced Rate of Adoption model—particularly factoring in the ETF-driven adoption surge—the next Bitcoin price peak could reach $261,000 by 2025.
That’s nearly double the previous forecast and significantly higher than where we stand today.
A glimpse at Bitcoin’s projected price movements
Of course, while models and historical trends help us get a clearer picture, nothing is guaranteed in financial markets.
Final Thoughts: Should You Be Holding Bitcoin Long-Term?
Here’s the deal—many investors get impatient, selling their Bitcoin for 60% or 100% gains, only to regret it later when it skyrockets.
Now, I’m not saying you need to be a Bitcoin maximalist and hold forever like Saylor suggests. But if the adoption model holds true, Bitcoin’s price might just keep climbing for decades.
The key takeaway? Patience often wins in crypto. While no asset is entirely risk-free, if Bitcoin continues following its historical trajectory, selling too early could be a costly mistake.
And as I like to say:
Everyone gets the Bitcoin price they deserve.
About the Author
Daniele Bernardi is the founder of Diaman, an investment management and software development group specializing in crypto and blockchain technology. Recognized by the European Patent Office for his work on mobile payments, he brings a data-driven approach to financial forecasting.
📢 Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered legal or investment advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions. 🚀
