Is a Solana ETF Coming in 2025? The Odds Are Looking Good

The race to launch a Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States is heating up, and if the latest predictions are anything to go by, things are looking promising. According to Matthew Sigel, head of research at VanEck, the likelihood of a Solana ETF hitting the US markets next year is even greater than what prediction markets currently estimate.

But how realistic is this forecast, and what does it mean for crypto investors? Let’s break it down.

Betting Markets Are Bullish on a Solana ETF

On January 1, the cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket put the odds of a US Solana ETF being approved in 2025 at around 77%. However, Sigel believes this estimate is “underpriced,” implying that the chances are even higher than what traders currently anticipate.

By January 2, Polymarket’s forecast had adjusted upwards to approximately 84%, reflecting the growing optimism surrounding crypto ETF approvals in the US.

So why the sudden surge in confidence? Much of it traces back to Donald Trump’s victory in the November elections. Trump has been vocal about his pro-crypto stance, declaring his intent to make the US “the world’s crypto capital.” Given his return to the White House, investors are betting on a more favorable regulatory environment—one that could greenlight several new crypto ETFs, including Solana.

Polymarket Betting Trends

Will the SEC Give Solana the Greenlight?

While optimism is high, a Solana ETF still faces regulatory hurdles. VanEck, alongside competing asset manager 21Shares, filed for Solana ETFs in June, but the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has expressed concerns.

The major sticking point? The SEC may classify Solana (SOL) as a security, rather than a commodity. This distinction is critical because, so far, only Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) ETFs have gained regulatory approval—and they have done so under an atypical “grantor trust” structure that the SEC is familiar with.

Analysts believe that for a Solana ETF to be approved, issuers must prove that it can fit within a similar framework. Still, many industry insiders see Trump’s presidency as a green light for more crypto ETFs across the board.

Crypto Bettors Are All In

Polymarket isn’t just popular among crypto traders—it’s also a surprisingly accurate barometer of political and financial events.

During the US elections in November, betting markets outperformed traditional polling by correctly predicting Trump’s victory and his party’s sweeping gains in Congress. With nearly $2 billion in trading volume in December alone, Polymarket’s forecasts carry weight.

And it’s not just about Solana. Crypto bettors are wagering that 2025 will be explosive for the industry. Markets are anticipating Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) to hit new all-time highs, alongside the introduction of several new crypto ETFs in the US.

Solana ETF Predictions

A Historic Moment for Crypto ETFs?

Whether or not Solana gets its ETF in 2025, one thing is clear: crypto ETFs are gaining momentum, and the regulatory landscape is shifting. With the right political and economic factors in play, next year could mark a major breakthrough for crypto adoption in traditional finance.

What do you think? Will we see a Solana ETF in 2025? Let us know your thoughts!

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