Ethereum’s MVRV Z-Score Suggests a Major Buying Opportunity—Are We at the Bottom?

Is Ethereum Entering the Ultimate Accumulation Zone?

Ethereum’s MVRV Z-Score, a crucial metric for assessing whether ETH is overvalued or undervalued, has just plummeted to a 17-month low. Historically, levels like these have signaled that the second-largest cryptocurrency may be at a turning point—potentially setting the stage for a major move.

So, what does this mean for Ethereum investors? Let’s dive into the data and see whether this could be the ultimate buying opportunity before another rally.

Ethereum’s MVRV Z-Score Points to Undervaluation

The MVRV Z-Score is a powerful tool that compares Ethereum’s market value to its realized value, identifying periods where the asset is overbought or undervalued. Right now, ETH’s score is hovering just above the green zone—a historical level of undervaluation.

ETH MVRV Z-Score performance chart. Source: Glassnode

The last time we saw Ethereum’s MVRV Z-Score drop this low was back in October 2023—right before ETH surged nearly 160% in the following months, smashing through the $4,000 level. Similar signals appeared in December 2022 and March 2020, just before some of Ethereum’s most legendary bull runs.

Could history be repeating itself? Data suggests it just might.

Institutions and Whales Are Loading Up On ETH

Another significant factor pointing toward an impending price surge? Major players are accumulating ETH like never before.

CryptoQuant data reveals that daily ETH inflows into accumulation addresses have skyrocketed, reaching their highest levels in years. Past spikes in accumulation have often preceded Ethereum’s biggest bull rallies.

ETH inflows into accumulation addresses. Source: CryptoQuant

Ethereum Whales Are Buying the Dip

It’s not just retail investors taking advantage of ETH’s lower prices—big-money players are making moves too.

According to Glassnode, Ethereum whales holding between 1,000 and 10,000 ETH have been aggressively buying since July 2024. This coincided with the launch of the first Ether-specific spot ETFs in the U.S., a catalyst that has significantly boosted institutional involvement.

Ethereum whale net position change (1K-10K ETH). Source: Glassnode

Interestingly, most of this accumulation coincided with Ethereum’s price dip, showing that whales are buying the weakness—a classic signal of long-term bullish confidence.

Can Ethereum Reclaim $4,000?

Now, the big question: Can ETH reclaim its $4,000 milestone?

As of March 6, 2025, Ethereum is trading near $2,291, resting on a crucial support zone—the 200-week Exponential Moving Average ($2,294). Additionally, ETH has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, a technical structure that typically results in massive breakouts.

ETH/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

Key Levels to Watch

To confirm a bullish breakout, Ethereum must first clear $2,518, a critical Fibonacci 0.382 retracement level. If ETH breaks past this hurdle, the next major resistance points are:

• $3,000 (0.5 Fib level)
• $3,420 (0.618 Fib level, historical resistance)
• $4,063 (0.786 Fib level, near the upper boundary of the triangle)

If Ethereum blasts through these levels, it’s highly likely we’ll see a return to all-time highs in the coming months.

The Flip Side—What If ETH Breaks Down?

While the setup looks bullish, a breakdown below the lower trendline of the symmetrical triangle would be concerning. Should this happen, Ethereum could slide toward the $1,050 mark, aligning with the 0.0 Fibonacci retracement line. While this scenario is less likely given growing accumulation trends, it’s always wise to consider the downside risks before making any trading decisions.

Final Thoughts: Is It Time to Accumulate ETH?

All signs point to Ethereum being in a classic accumulation zone—from the MVRV Z-Score to institutional buying patterns and technical setups. Historically, these conditions have preceded massive rallies.

While there are no guarantees in crypto, the evidence suggests that ETH could be preparing for a substantial upward move. For those watching Ethereum’s price action closely, now may be an opportune time to strategize for the next market cycle.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.