**Bitcoin’s Rollercoaster Ride: A Prelude to a Mid-2025 Peak?**
The past week hasn’t been kind to Bitcoin. A 3% dip in the last 24 hours and an overall 8% drop in the last seven days might be making investors a little nervous. But hold on—this January slump? It’s nothing out of the ordinary. Market analysts suggest that Bitcoin is merely taking a breather before resuming its bull run, potentially topping out by mid-July 2025. Let’s break it all down.
Bitcoin’s Price: Gearing Up for a Summer Peak?
Despite the recent dip, Bitcoin still has plenty of runway ahead, with data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView suggesting that BTC is consolidating after its spectacular rally in 2024.
The cryptocurrency reached an all-time high of $108,268 on December 17, 2024, before pulling back by around 14%. However, seasoned trader Dave the Wave points out that Bitcoin’s movement has historically aligned with the 52-week simple moving average (SMA).
According to Dave, Bitcoin has previously peaked when the one-year SMA tapped the middle band of the logarithmic growth curve (LGC). And guess what? The next such instance is projected to occur sometime in mid-July 2025. While history isn’t always a perfect guide, past cycles suggest that BTC’s ultimate peak could land within a few days or months before or after this signal.
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: Dave The Wave
Interestingly, the less steep incline of the moving average suggests Bitcoin is maturing as an asset, which could mean a more measured but sustained bull run.
The Correction Phase: Almost Over?
A January retracement is nothing new for Bitcoin, and analysts argue that what we’re seeing now is simply part of BTC’s natural price discovery process.
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital explains that Bitcoin typically goes through a “first price discovery correction” between week six and week eight of its post-halving rally. Based on historical data, corrections like these tend to last between two and four weeks.
“This current retrace has been going on for 4 weeks now,”
— Rekt Capital on X (Jan. 11, 2025)
Meanwhile, fellow analyst Axel Adler Jr. notes that this current pullback is actually less severe than similar periods in previous cycles. For example, back in mid-2024, Bitcoin briefly tumbled over 26% in just one week. Compared to that, this downturn is relatively tame.
Source: Axel Adler Jr.
History supports the idea that these early-year corrections, while unpleasant, are nothing to panic over—especially in years following a Bitcoin halving event.
What’s Next? Possible Bear Traps or a Fresh Breakout?
Now, here’s where things get even more interesting. Legendary trader Peter Brandt spotted a head-and-shoulders (H&S) pattern on Bitcoin’s daily chart. If this pattern holds, BTC could be looking at a dip below $77,000 before rebounding.
BTC/USD daily chart: Possible H&S pattern. Source: Peter Brandt
There are three possible outcomes here:
- The pattern plays out, and BTC completes a full retracement toward the target below $77,000.
- The price dips but fails to reach the set target, forming a bear trap before shooting back up.
- The head-and-shoulders formation morphs into a larger, more complex pattern.
On top of that, trader Bitcoin Munger has noted substantial buy orders stacking up between $85,000 and $92,000 on Binance. The big question now: Does Bitcoin drop to fill these bids first, or does it push to fill the massive sell orders waiting at $110,000?
“Be prepared for either scenario as I believe $110k is coming either way.”
— Bitcoin Munger on X
Final Thoughts: A Familiar Pattern for BTC?
Bitcoin’s current price action may seem uncertain to new investors, but to those who’ve watched multiple bull cycles, this follows a familiar pattern. After each halving, BTC experiences strong rallies, temporary corrections, and then a full-fledged price explosion.
With analysts calling for a potential July 2025 peak, the next six months could be thrilling. But remember: Bitcoin is volatile. If you’re betting on BTC’s future, always do your research, manage risk appropriately, and prepare for a wild ride.
⚠️ This article does not contain financial advice. All investment decisions carry risk, and you should always conduct your own analysis before making any financial moves.
